After the last few weeks were filled with important new macro data and statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), this week will be much quieter and less filled with important data that could affect the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Still, crypto investors should bear in mind some economic and financial data this trading week.
In particular, as Bitcoin has returned to its correlation with the U.S. stock indices and the dollar index (DXY), the price could be affected by this news.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly corrected to a new 12-day low at $22,775, but still managed to end the week above $23,300. The new week will have to show whether the upward trend that has persisted since January will continue or whether there will be a deeper correction.
This Will Be Important For Bitcoin And Crypto
Even though there are numerous data releases coming up again this week, as Walter Bloomberg reported in the following tweet, Bitcoin investors should focus on a few data releases that could actually have a noticeable impact on the price. These are the release of Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Wednesday and Friday.
Scheduled Economic Releases for Week of February 27, 2023 pic.twitter.com/598EhpQ714
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 25, 2023
On Tuesday, February 28, the Conference Board (CB) will release the January U.S. consumer confidence figures at 10:00 am EST. The number came in at 107.1 in January, below expectations of 109. For the month of February, analysts expect a slight increase to 108.5.
The textbook theory is that a decline in consumer sentiment should lead to looser monetary policy to boost consumer spending on durable goods and while a rising consumer confidence should result in a tightening of monetary policy.
Thus, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could continue its upward movement from the previous week if the forecast is met or even exceeded. This is likely to have a negative impact on price action in the crypto and Bitcoin markets, as it did last trading week.
On the other hand, it is questionable whether the textbook theory will play out in the event of lower-than-expected consumer confidence, as this also increases the likelihood of a recession in the US. Still, Bitcoin could see a brief uptick as the Fed could be slowed in its intention of a 50 basis point (bps) hike.
PMI On Wednesday And Friday
On Wednesday, March 1, the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector will be released at 10:00 am EST. The estimate for February is for a reading of 48.0, with the index coming in at 47.4 in January, below the forecast of 48.0. The crypto market subsequently rallied on the back of a drop in the DXY.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is likely to look quite closely at the PMI as they look to prevent a continued negative performance in the manufacturing sector. A higher-than-expected PMI, on the other hand, could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and put pressure on the Bitcoin price.
On Friday, March 3, the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index for the service sector in the U.S. will be released, which has been of particular interest to the Fed lately. In January, the PMI for the service sector was 55.2, well above the expectation of 50.4. As a result, the DXY strengthened significantly, and crypto fell.
A similar scenario can be expected this week. For the month of February, experts forecast a slight decline to 54.5, and if the index comes back above expectations, the DXY is likely to rise further, sending Bitcoin lower. A reading below expectations could drive the Bitcoin price up.
The underlying reason is that the service sector has recently decoupled from other sectors such as manufacturing and real estate and has shown itself to be much more resilient. If the service sector were to weaken as well, this would actually be a positive surprise, as it would increase the probability of a falling inflation rate in the coming months.
At press time, the BTC price stood at $23,429.
Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com